Bitcoin Holds Key Support as Market Awaits Powell’s Jackson Hole Speech: What to Expect

Bitcoin’s Critical Support Level Analysis

Bitcoin (BTC) managed to hold a crucial support level at $112,500 overnight, marking an important point in its trading pattern. This level aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement from its April to July rally, a technical analysis tool that has historically indicated potential reversal points in asset prices. The current situation reflects cautious positioning among traders as they await Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s much-anticipated speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium later today.

Market Reactions to Powell’s Speech

Last month, the market experienced a significant bounce from this same Fibonacci level. Traders are hopeful that a similar rebound could occur if Powell hints at a more dovish monetary policy, suggesting faster and deeper rate cuts. Currently, the market is pricing in a 25 basis point cut in September, with expectations for another cut before the end of the year. Analysts are projecting that Bitcoin could see a 2% price swing in response to Powell’s speech, highlighting the high stakes of the upcoming address.

Ethereum and Other Cryptocurrencies on the Move

A dovish tone from Powell could also lead to a strong bounce for Ethereum (ETH), which is currently hovering above its uptrend line, connecting lows from April and early August. As traders continue to speculate on the potential impact of Powell’s statements, the market is poised for movement.

Derivatives Positioning: Insights into BTC and ETH

The global futures open interest (OI) for Bitcoin and Ethereum has seen a 1% increase in the past 24 hours, indicating that capital is flowing into the markets even as prices drop. Some of these inflows could potentially represent bearish bets, serving as hedges against the possibility of hawkish comments from Powell later today. In contrast, cryptocurrencies like Solana (SOL), Dogecoin (DOGE), Chainlink (LINK), XRP, and Cardano (ADA) have all seen declines in open interest, suggesting capital outflows.

Shifting Trends in Speculative Activity

Interestingly, speculative activity has cooled significantly, with trading volumes for major tokens, excluding Bitcoin, dropping by 20% or more. This trend indicates that traders are holding back, likely waiting for Powell’s address before making their next moves. On the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), open interest in standard Ethereum futures remains elevated near 2 million ETH, while Bitcoin’s open interest remains well below July’s lows, signaling a lack of investor interest in BTC futures.

Options Market Heating Up

However, options trading on the CME is witnessing increased activity, with Ethereum open interest rising to $1 billion, the highest this year. Bitcoin’s options open interest has jumped to $4.44 billion, marking the most significant level since May. The options market is implying a 2% price swing for Bitcoin in the next 24 hours, suggesting heightened volatility surrounding the Jackson Hole event. Notably, Bitcoin puts are trading at a premium to calls, indicating ongoing fears of downside risk.

Token Talk: Insights into Wallet Activity

On-chain investigator Dethective recently uncovered coordinated wallet activity surrounding the launches of cryptocurrencies YZY and LIBRA. This investigation revealed that insiders extracted nearly $23 million through early access and pre-seeded trades. One wallet notably purchased $250,000 worth of YZY at $0.20—while most traders paid above $1—then flipped it for nearly $1 million profit within eight minutes. The funds from this wallet were subsequently funneled into a “treasury wallet” linked to LIBRA gains. Dethective suggests that such behavior is indicative of insider trading, raising concerns about the integrity of these launches.

Ripple’s New Stablecoin Initiative

In a significant development, Ripple and SBI Holdings have announced plans to introduce the RLUSD stablecoin in Japan by Q1 2026, leveraging new digital asset regulations. SBI VC Trade, a licensed electronic payment instruments exchange service provider, will facilitate the distribution of RLUSD. This stablecoin, fully backed by U.S. dollar deposits, short-term Treasuries, and cash equivalents, will undergo monthly attestations by a third-party auditor. Ripple emphasizes that this initiative provides regulatory clarity and institutional-grade compliance compared to its peers.

Conclusion: What Lies Ahead for Bitcoin and the Crypto Market

The RLUSD initiative is seen as a bridge between traditional finance and decentralized finance, reflecting Ripple and SBI’s deepening partnership in Asia. With Japan recently approving its first yen-denominated stablecoin, the market is rapidly evolving. As traders closely monitor Powell’s speech and the broader crypto landscape, it becomes increasingly crucial to stay informed about market trends and developments.

For those looking to enter the cryptocurrency market, resources are available on how to buy Bitcoin, buy cryptocurrency, and buy Ethereum. Additionally, insights on XRP and its price predictions can be found for those interested in this particular digital asset.