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Bitcoin’s Recent Performance: A Closer Look
Bitcoin (BTC) has recently concluded what is statistically one of its worst weeks of the year, with a notable decline of over 5%. As Week 38 marks the end of the third quarter, Bitcoin’s performance has been somewhat stable, showing a modest increase of about 1% over the quarter while September remained flat. This underperformance aligns with the historical trend of this period being one of the weakest seasons for Bitcoin, but several influencing factors deserve attention.
Options Expiry and Its Impact
This past Friday saw the expiration of more than $17 billion in Bitcoin options. The “max pain” price, which is the strike price where option holders incur maximum losses while options writers profit, was set at $110,000. This price acted as a gravitational pull for the spot price of Bitcoin during this time. A crucial technical indicator to monitor is the short-term holder cost basis, which stands at $110,775. This figure represents the average acquisition price for coins that have changed hands in the last six months. Historically, in bull markets, Bitcoin tends to gravitate towards this line multiple times, demonstrating its significance.
Key Levels to Watch
Bitcoin tested this critical level back in August, and it is essential to determine whether it remains in an upward trend characterized by higher highs and higher lows, which would indicate a sustainable rally. Analyst Caleb Franzen points out that Bitcoin has dropped below its 100-day exponential moving average (EMA), while the 200-day EMA currently sits at around $106,186. The last notable low was approximately $107,252 on September 1. For the broader bullish trend to hold, Bitcoin must stay above this level.
The Macro Economic Context
On a macroeconomic scale, the U.S. economy witnessed an annual growth rate of 3.8% in the second quarter, surpassing the 3.3% expectations, marking the strongest performance since early 2023. Jobless claims have decreased by 14,000, totaling 218,000, reaching the lowest point since mid-July. The spending data aligns with market expectations. The U.S. core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index—an inflation measure preferred by the Federal Reserve—rose by 0.2% in August compared to the previous month. Moreover, the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries has bounced back from the 4% support level, now trading near 4.2%. The dollar index (DXY) remains near long-term support at 98.
Metals and Equities Performance
In the commodities market, metals are currently leading the charge, with silver approaching an all-time high at around $45, levels not seen since 1980 and 2011. U.S. equities are also nearing record highs, while Bitcoin lingers more than 10% below its peak, highlighting its ongoing struggles.
Bitcoin-Linked Stocks Under Pressure
Bitcoin treasury companies are experiencing significant compression in their multiple-to-net-asset-value (mNAV) ratios. For instance, MicroStrategy (MSTR) remains barely positive year-to-date, having dipped below $300 at one point—a negative return for 2025. The ratio between MSTR and the BlackRock iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) has reached a low of 4.8, the lowest since October 2024, emphasizing how MSTR has underperformed Bitcoin over the last year. As of Friday, MSTR’s enterprise mNAV stands at 1.44, considering all shares outstanding, total notional debt, and preferred stock values minus cash balances.
Volatility Concerns
One of the significant challenges for MSTR is the lack of volatility in Bitcoin. The cryptocurrency’s implied volatility, which reflects the market’s expectations for future price fluctuations, has fallen below 40—its lowest level in years. This is particularly relevant as MSTR is often marketed as a volatility play on Bitcoin. To put this into perspective, MSTR’s implied volatility stands at 68, while its annualized standard deviation of daily log returns has decreased from 89% to 49% over the past year and last 30 days, respectively. In the equities market, higher volatility typically draws speculators and investors, making Bitcoin’s current stability a potential hindrance.
Challenges for Other Bitcoin Treasury Companies
Meanwhile, Metaplanet (3350), the fifth-largest Bitcoin treasury company, holds 25,555 BTC and has approximately $500 million left to deploy from its international offerings. Nevertheless, its share price remains significantly under pressure at 517 yen ($3.45), more than 70% below its all-time high. Metaplanet’s mNAV has plummeted to 1.12, down from 8.44 in June. Currently, its market capitalization is $3.94 billion, whereas its Bitcoin NAV stands at $2.9 billion, with an average acquisition cost of $106,065 per Bitcoin.
Conclusion: What Lies Ahead for Bitcoin?
As we move forward, investors and traders will be closely monitoring Bitcoin’s key levels and market dynamics. With external economic factors and internal market indicators influencing its price, understanding these elements will be crucial for predicting Bitcoin’s next moves. Whether you’re considering investing in Bitcoin or exploring different cryptocurrencies, it’s essential to stay informed and up-to-date with the latest trends.
For those new to cryptocurrency, you can check out guides on How to Buy Bitcoin and How to Buy Cryptocurrency for a comprehensive understanding of the market.
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Stay updated on Bitcoin’s performance as it struggles in Q3, analyzing key price levels and market factors impacting its trajectory. Learn about the broader economic backdrop, Bitcoin treasury companies, and what to watch for in the coming months.
